A Type II Radio Emission with an estimated velocity of 1 321 km/s was observed at 09:11 UTC, suggesting a CME was produced during today’s X1.2 solar flare.
Additionally, a Type IV Radio Emission was associated with the flare event, suggesting a strong CME was produced. With the source region still in a geoeffective position, an Earth-directed CME seems very likely.
Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over Africa, parts of the Middle East, and the Indian Ocean.
Region 4274 still has a ‘beta-gamma-delta’ magnetic configuration and is capable of producing more major eruptions on the Sun. Earth-directed CMEs from this region remain likely in the days ahead.
Solar activity was at high levels over in 24 hours to 00:30 UTC on November 10. Region 4274 produced an X1.7/2b flare at 07:19 UTC on November 9, associated with Type II (804 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, as well as an F10.7 cm radio burst measuring 360 solar flux units (sfu).
The resulting asymmetric halo CME, first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 07:48 UTC off the north-northeast limb, is Earth-directed with an anticipated arrival around midday UTC on November 11.
Regions 4276 (beta-gamma) and 4277 (beta) exhibited slight growth and produced several C-class flares while other sunspot groups remained relatively unchanged and inactive.
The SWPC forecasts a 70% probability of M-class and a 25% probability of X-class solar flares through November 12.
The >2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels, while the >10 MeV proton flux remained at background values over the past 36 hours.
From November 10–12, the >2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels. The >10 MeV proton flux could increase to S1 – Minor storm levels due to the activity and location of Region 4274.
Solar wind parameters over the past 24 hours reflected waning negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) influences. The total magnetic field strength reached 8 nT, with the Bz component fluctuating between ±6 nT. Solar wind speeds gradually declined from 600 km/s to about 525 km/s while the phi angle was variable throughout the period.
Mild enhancement of the solar wind environment is likely on November 10 as the CME from November 7 passes near Earth. Stronger disturbances are expected between November 11–12 following the anticipated arrival of the November 9 CME.
The geomagnetic field remained quiet during the past 24 hours.
Periods of G1 – Minor geomagnetic storming are likely on November 10 due to possible CME-related enhancements from the November 7 event. More pronounced activity, ranging from G1 – Minor to G2 – Moderate levels, is expected between November 11–12 as Earth encounters the CME from November 9.
References:
1 Forecast Discussion – NOAA/SWPC – 00:30 UTC on November 10, 2025