Solar activity reached moderate levels during the past 24 hours, with a long-duration M3.3 flare from just beyond the east-southeast limb. The flare peaked at 23:14 UTC on January 11 and originated from a region not yet visible on the Earth-facing disk. A coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced, but it’s directed away from Earth.
Region 4336 (beta-gamma) remained the most active sunspot group, producing multiple C-class flares, including an impulsive C3.0 flare at 14:18 UTC on January 11. The region exhibited gradual decay in its trailing spots. Region 4339 (alpha) showed weak redevelopment, with new leader spots emerging west and north of its prior position.
A new region, numbered 4340 (beta), was identified during the period but remained inactive. The remaining regions across the visible solar disk displayed gradual decay and no significant flare activity.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels, peaking at 501 pfu, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. Electron flux is expected to remain normal to moderate, with a chance of high levels through January 14. Proton flux is forecast to stay at background levels through the same period.
Solar wind parameters continued to reflect the combined influence of CME and coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) effects.
The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) reached 17 nT early in the period before decreasing to values between 6 and 11 nT. The Bz component fluctuated between +11 and −10 nT, becoming predominantly southward later in the period. The average solar wind speed was near 540 km/s, and the magnetic field (phi) remained in a negative orientation.
Earth remains under the influence of the CME that departed the Sun on January 8, transitioning gradually toward weaker but persistent CH HSS dominance.
Geomagnetic activity reached G1 – Minor to G2 – Moderate levels between January 10 and 11 as CME and CH HSS effects continued to impact Earth’s magnetosphere.
The planetary Kp index peaked at 6 (G2) on January 10 between 18:00 and 21:00 UTC, with additional periods of Kp 4–5 (Active–G1) observed through January 11. Conditions declined to Kp 3–4 (Unsettled–Active) by early January 12, consistent with the waning CME impact.
The SWPC expects further weakening through January 12, trending from G2 to G1 levels and settling into unsettled-to-active conditions by the end of the day.
Unsettled-to-active geomagnetic activity is likely to persist through January 13–14 as the solar wind remains elevated under residual CME and negative-polarity coronal hole influences.
Solar activity is forecast to stay low with a slight chance for additional M-class flares through January 14. The geomagnetic field is expected to gradually quiet as CME effects dissipate and CH HSS influence weakens.
References:
1 Forecast Discussion – NOAA/SWPC – Issued at 00:30 UTC on January 12, 2026