Solar activity reached major levels on February 1 as Active Region 4366 (N14E40, beta-gamma-delta) produced a series of M-class flares followed by a major X1.0 flare at 12:33 UTC.
Activity began intensifying late January 31 with several C-class flares ranging from C2.8 to C7.8 between 16:00 and 22:18 UTC.
By early February 1, the region produced a steady sequence of M1.7, M1.0, and M1.9 flares, followed by M6.6, M2.4, and M6.7 before X1.0, suggesting rapid magnetic reconfiguration and increasing magnetic shear within Region 4366’s delta-spot structure as it rotates toward the central solar meridian.
Radio frequencies following the X1.0 flare were forecast to be most degraded over the South Atlantic Ocean and parts of South America and Africa.
Preliminary analysis indicates possible coronal-shock formations today, suggesting a coronal mass ejection (CME) may have accompanied one or more of the day’s major events.
No solar proton event has been detected to this time. GOES-18 proton flux remains below the S1 – Minor threshold, while electron flux above 2 MeV continues at high levels.
Solar activity is forecast to remain at moderate to high levels through February 3, with further M-class flares likely and a slight chance of an isolated X-class event.
Solar-wind parameters show an ambient regime, with total field 3–6 nT and Bz mostly neutral to −4 nT, and flow speed below 350 km/s. Geomagnetic field activity is at quiet levels.
A new M5.8 flare erupted at 12:50 UTC, less than twenty minutes after the X1.0 event, confirming that Region 4366 remains highly energized.
While current geomagnetic conditions remain calm, the sequence of strong flares has increased the probability of Earth-directed CMEs over the next 24 – 48 hours as Region 4366 continues to rotate toward a more geoeffective position near the central solar meridian.
The region’s beta-gamma-delta configuration, its demonstrated ability to produce major-class flares, and the presence of type II radio bursts all support the likelihood of further eruptive activity capable of producing coronal mass ejections into the Earth-directed zone.