Spaceweather.com for February 27 reports about a minor CME hurling
towards Earth.
Solar activity remains at low levels due primarily to C-class flares
just beyond the SE limb near S21. The largest was a C5.3 flare on
February 25. On the visible disk, an approximate 5-degree filament
eruption was observed centered near S08W27 with an associated C2.6
flare.
The eruption was accompanied by a Type II radio sweep (595 km/s) and
possibly two related coronal mass ejections (CMEs), first observed
in ST A COR2 imagery beginning on February 25. Two CMEs were
observed off the NE and E limbs in the imagery. However, SOHO/LASCO
C2 imagery only showed the northerly CME. Analysis of the CMEs is in
progress.
Solar activity is likely to remain at low levels with a slight
chance for isolated M-class activity (R1-R2/minor-moderate), as the
bright regions currently seen at the east limb rotate onto the
visible disk.
Solar wind parameters continued to show Coronal Hole High Speed
Stream (CH HSS) influence. Solar wind speed ranged from 530-650
km/s. Conditions are likely to return to nominal levels as High
Speed Stream activity wanes.
Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth’s
Ionosphere, February 26, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:
“Between February 22 and 24, there was not a single spot on the
solar disk, which last happened less than four years ago. The
maximum of the 25th cycle is behind us, while the years 2024-2025
can be considered the years of cycle maximum.
“At the same time, the Sun is in a key phase of reversing its
magnetic field. This process is a natural part of the 11-year solar
cycle, usually occurring asymmetrically (the northern and southern
hemispheres of the Sun may reverse at slightly different times, with
the process taking several months). The magnetic field in the polar
regions of the Sun gradually weakens until it completely breaks down
and reforms with the opposite polarity.
“The next eleven-year solar minimum (the transition between the
current 25th and future 26th cycles) is expected in 2030-2031, when
the Sun’s magnetic field will stabilize again and the star will
enter a quiet period. A more precise date for the minimum will only
be possible to determine at the end of the decade based on the
current development of sunspots.
“During the first week of March, solar activity should gradually
increase and then decrease in the following week. Changes in the
intensity of the solar wind will have the greatest impact on the
development of shortwave propagation conditions. For prediction of
these changes, it is recommended to monitor the position and area of
coronal holes and, in particular, solar flares that will be located
near their edges.
“This can be monitored excellently at for
example, and even professionals will confirm that you will find
everything you need here to understand the causes of ongoing events
and for operational practice. In addition, we can monitor the local
effects in the ionosphere in detail especially thanks to ionospheric
digisonde stations, dozens of which are available on the internet!”
Active periods are likely, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm
levels, on February 28 to March 1, due to the anticipated arrival of
a CME that left the Sun on February 25.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on March 3, and then on March 6 to 8
due to anticipated influence of multiple recurrent coronal holes.
The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, can be found on
YouTube at, .
The Predicted Planetary A Index for February 28 to March 6 is 5, 5,
5, 5, 5, 15, and 15, with a mean of 7.9. Predicted Planetary K
Index is 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 4, and 4, with a mean of 2.6.
10.7-centimeter flux is 122, 122, 125, 125, 125, 125, and 130, with
a mean of 124.9.
For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
. Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at, .
Also, check this:
https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
“Understanding Solar Indices” from September 2002 QST.