Region 4409 is located at the center of the solar disk, suggesting any coronal mass ejection (CME) produced by it would be Earth-directed.
However, this event was impulsive in nature, and there were no radio signatures detected that would indicate a CME was produced.
The region maintains a ‘beta-gamma’ magnetic configuration and is capable of producing more strong eruptions on the Sun. Earth-directed CMEs from AR 4409 will remain a possibility in the days ahead.
Solar activity was at moderate levels in 24 hours to 00:30 UTC on April 4. Aforementioned Ragion 4409 produced the majority of X-ray activity during the period, which included two impulsive M1.3 flares at 07:56 and 12:50 UTC on April 3.
The region exhibited penumbral growth while consolidating spots near its leader, while the remaining spotted regions on the visible disk were either mostly stable or in gradual decay.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 4 465 pfu during the same period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained elevated throughout the period, reaching a level of 6 pfu at 04:05 UTC on April 3, but remained below S1 – Minor levels.
Solar wind parameters indicated influence from a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) until 15:03 UTC on April 3, when an interplanetary shock was observed from the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on April 1.
The shock increased the total magnetic field strength from 5 nT to a peak of 14 nT. Bz was mostly oriented southward, with a peak negative value of -11 nT observed at 15:18 UTC. Solar wind speeds increased from ~625 km/s to ~800 km/s, and then entered a gradual decline with values near 700 km/s by the end of the UTC day.
The geomagnetic field reached G3 – Strong geomagnetic storm levels following the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on April 1.
Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels, with a slight chance for X-class flares, through April 6, driven primarily by the flare potential of Regions 4404, 4405, and 4409.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels through April 6. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to exceed S1 – Minor solar radiation storm levels over the same period.
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced through April 6 due to waning CME effects, followed by negative polarity CH HSS influences.
The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 – Minor to G2 – Moderate storm levels on April 4 due to the combined effects of a CME that left the Sun on April 1 and the influence from a negative polarity CH HSS.
G1 – Minor conditions are likely on April 5 and active conditions on April 6 as negative polarity CH HSS influences wane and any remnant CME enhancements subside.
References:
1 Forecast Discussion – NOAA/SWPC – Issued at 00:30 UTC on April 4, 2026