A Type II Radio Emission with an estimated velocity of 650 km/s was detected at 13:29 UTC, suggesting a coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced.
While imagery provided by the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) shows a large CME lifting off the Sun, the location of this region does not favor Earth-directed CMEs. Coronagraph imagery confirms the CME was not directed toward Earth.
Additionally, a 10cm Radio Burst with peak flux of 550 sfu was detected from 13:28 to 13:43 UTC. A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background.
This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers, including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.
The region is located near the northeast limb of the Sun, at approximately N18E69. It is currently rotating toward the center of the visible solar disk, where any future eruptions would have a higher chance of producing Earth-directed CMEs.
The Earth-directed CME potential will therefore increase over the coming days as the region moves into a more geoeffective position.
Region 4432, located at N14W49, continued to evolve over the past 24 hours and was responsible for nearly all C-class flare activity. The region gained additional spots with mature penumbra and developed weak mixed polarity in its intermediate area. The remaining numbered regions were relatively stable and quiet.
Solar activity is expected to remain mostly low from May 10 to 12. There is a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels during the past 24 hours, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels from May 10 to 12, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background.
The solar wind environment remained slightly enhanced under persistent but weakening positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream influence. Total magnetic field strength ranged from 2 to 4 nT, while the Bz component remained near neutral. Solar wind speeds decreased from near 500 km/s to near 400 km/s by 12:30 UTC today.
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain mildly enhanced through May 12 under weak positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream influence.
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected from May 10 to 12 as the weak positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream influence persists.
References:
1 Forecast Discussion – NOAA/SWPC – 12:30 UTC on May 10, 2026