NASA hopes 2028 will be the year for a crewed moon landing, an ambition that mirrors President Trump’s goal to return humanity to the lunar surface before the end of his second term. Meeting that timeline depends on the success of the Artemis III mission, which is supposed to launch in mid-2027.
During the announcement of the Artemis III astronauts, who will fly in low-Earth orbit as a test mission for NASA’s broader moon program, the agency focused on ramping up excitement for the upcoming mission. But little was offered about whether NASA could still meet its moon landing goal.
In a media briefing directly following the event, however, Jared Isaacman, the NASA administrator, shared that the agency is “extremely confident” in meeting that goal and that it would be transparent with any updates.
“We’re going to return to the moon before the end of 2028,” Mr. Isaacman said. “Just watch along.”
Experts were hopeful that NASA could still make it back to the moon, but also expressed skepticism about the feasibility of doing so by 2028. “I think me and most people would say it’s not a realistic date,” said Casey Dreier, chief of space policy at the Planetary Society.
In April, NASA proved with its Artemis II mission that it could use its giant Space Launch System rocket, coupled with the Orion spacecraft, to send humans to lunar orbit. But NASA is relying on two private companies, SpaceX and Blue Origin, to provide landing vehicles for future missions that will transfer astronauts from orbit to the moon’s surface, and then back.
According to Mr. Dreier, this will let NASA to go to the moon at a much lower cost than during the Apollo era — but also means that the agency’s lunar aspirations are largely at the whims of two billionaires, Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos.
“That’s a lot of power and hope that you place in just two people to provide a capability that is actually essential to a national goal,” he said. “NASA is a passive witness to its fate.”
Neither SpaceX nor Blue Origin have completed development of a lunar lander. Nor are the rockets that are supposed to get those landers to the moon ready to go: SpaceX’s Starship has suffered repeated failures during test flights, and Blue Origin’s New Glenn exploded and damaged the company’s only launchpad in May.
Those circumstances could very well delay NASA’s goal of a lunar landing in 2028. External factors, like bad weather or government shutdowns, could also affect that timeline.
“It is unrealistic,” Phil McAlister, the former director of NASA’s commercial space division, wrote in an email. “At the same time, I’m not going to say it is impossible.”
Clayton Swope, the deputy director of the Aerospace Security Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., echoed that sentiment. “It’s looking increasingly likely that the answer is no,” he said, referring to the possibility of a 2028 moon landing. “But there is still a chance for a Hail Mary play.”
Landing on the moon has always been difficult, even for uncrewed missions. In 2023, Russia attempted its first lunar landing attempt since the 1970s, but the spacecraft crashed into the surface. A Japanese spacecraft carrying two rovers landed upside down on the moon in 2024. Intuitive Machines, a private company based in Houston, landed a vehicle that tipped on its side last year.
China has been particularly successful with moon landings. It deployed rovers on the lunar surface in 2013 and 2019, and returned samples of moon dust from the near side in 2020 and the far side in 2024. The nation plans to land humans on the moon by 2030.
According to Mr. Swope, beating China to the moon is one reason for NASA to pursue a 2028 lunar landing; economic growth and commercial development are others.
“Yet space remains more than just that,” he said, adding that a sustained lunar presence is a step toward building a better future for generations to come. “We go to the moon, and then beyond, as part of the journey to realize that vision.”