Asteroid 2026 RW1 struck Earth over the Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on September 6, just over 7 hours after it was discovered, becoming the 13th known asteroid detected before hitting Earth. This event added another real-world test of planetary defense systems designed to identify small incoming objects, rapidly refine their trajectories, and determine where and when they will enter the atmosphere.
ESA tracked the asteroid under the temporary identifier CERNQ52 using its Meerkat system and estimated its diameter at only 0.6–1.3 m (2–4.3 feet). Objects of this size are difficult to detect far in advance because they are intrinsically faint, often becoming observable only when they are already relatively close to Earth.
As new observations were added, ESA classified 2026 RW1 as a confirmed impactor and determined the median impact position near 13.77°S, 116.43°E, over the Indian Ocean northwest of Australia.
Meerkat is designed to assess newly detected objects when only a short observational arc is available. It tests a range of possible trajectories and narrows the solution as additional astrometric measurements arrive.
The Minor Planet Center’s (MPC) orbital solution classifies the asteroid as an Aten near-Earth object, with an absolute magnitude of H 33.26, an orbital inclination of 1.43402°, and a semimajor axis of 0.9447379 AU, approximately 141.3 million km (87.8 million miles).
The object burned out in the atmosphere, and judging by its latest calculated impact area, there’s almost no chance of meteorite recovery.
This is now the 13th predicted Earth impactor, following 2026 JN4 in May — the first such detection in almost 1.5 years.
JN4 reached Earth a little more than three hours after discovery. In comparison, 2026 RW1 was tracked for approximately 7 hours 22 minutes between its first reported observation and nominal impact.
Predicted Earth impactors
Updated at 11:20 UTC on May 16, 2026
| Object / Type | Discovery date (UTC) | Impact date (UTC) | Impact location | Dimensions (~) | Energy released (kt) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 TC3 (Apollo) | October 6, 2008 at 06:39 | October 7, 2008 at 02:46 | Nubian desert, Sudan | 4 m (13.1 feet) | 1 | 600 meteorites found. Total weight 11 kg. |
| 2014 AA (Apollo) | January 1, 2014 at 06:18 | January 2, 2014 at 03:06 | Atlantic Ocean | 3 m (9.8 feet) | 0.5 – 0.1 | – |
| 2018 LA (Apollo) | June 2, 2018 at 08:22 | June 2, 2018 at 16:44 | Botswana/South Africa | 3 m (9.8 feet) | 0.4 | At least 24 meteorites found. Ejected by asteroid Vesta. Howardite-Eucrite-Diogenite (HED) type material |
| 2019 MO (Apollo) | June 22, 2019 at 07:24 | June 22, 2019 at 21:25 | Puerto Rico | 5 m (16.4 feet) | 6 | Possibly Alinda asteroid. NEXRAD weather radar detected falling meteorites over water. |
| 2022 EB5 (Apollo) | March 11, 2022 at 19:24 | March 11, 2022 at 21:22 | Jan Mayen Island, Norway | 1 m (6.4 feet) | 2 | – |
| 2022 WJ1 (Apollo) | November 19, 2022 at 04:53 | November 19, 2022 at 08:27 | Ontario, Canada | 1 m (3.2 feet) | – | Most meteorites fell in water. |
| 2023 CX1 (Apollo) | February 12, 2023 at 20:18 | February 13, 2023 at 02:59 | Normandy, France | 1 m (3.2 feet) | – | Over 22 meteorites. |
| 2024 BX1 (Apollo) | January 20, 2024 at 20:48 | January 21, 2024 at 00:33 | Berlin, Germany | 0.7 – 1.6 m (2.23 – 5.2 feet) / ~140 kg | – | About 200 meteorites. Total weight 1.8 kg. |
| 2024 RW1 (Apollo) | September 4, 2024 at 05:43 | September 4, 2024 at 16:39 | Luzon, Philippines | 1.1 – 2.4 m (3.6 – 7.9 feet) | 0.2 | – |
| 2024 UQ | October 22, 2024 | October 22, 2024 at 10:54 | Eastern Pacific Ocean | 1 m (3.2 feet) | 0.15 | – |
| 2024 XA1 | December 3, 2024 at 05:55 | December 3, 2024 at 16:15 | Siberia, Russia | 70 cm (2.3 feet) | – | – |
| 2026 JN4 | May 15, 2026 at 08:08 | May 15, 2026 at 13:44 | Arafura Sea region | 0.65 – 1.4 m (2.1 – 4.5 feet) | – | – |
| 2026 RW1 | September 5, 2026 at 08:45 | September 6, 2026 at 16:39 UTC | Indian Ocean, between Indonesia and Australia | 1 – 2.3 m (3.2 – 7.5 feet) | – | – |
References:
1 2026 RW1 / MPEC 2026-R64 – MPC – September 6, 2026
2 Imminent Impactors – ESA/NEOCC – September 6, 2026