Look for improved propagation on the upper HF bands, as both the
sunspot numbers and 10.7-centimeter radio flux remain near or above
100. According to NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC),
the increase in activity is being fueled primarily by sunspot
Region 4551, which is described as the largest and most complex of
six sunspot regions currently visible on the surface of the Sun.
Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected as well, with some
disturbances possible late next week.
The Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre predicts mostly
normal HF propagation conditions worldwide.
The W3LPL Propagation Forecast from the Daily DX is predicting
significantly improved DX conditions on 10 and 12 meters for as many
as the next 10 days, with excellent conditions on 17, 15, and 20
meters as well. DX openings on 30 meters should begin in late
afternoon each day, followed by 40 meters around an hour before
sunset, and 80 meters just after sunset.
Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth’s
Ionosphere, October 15, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:
The so-called 27-day recurrence derived from the duration of one
rotation of the Sun around its own axis is often a useful tool for
forecasting fluctuations in solar activity. Although rare, there
are instances when the trend is exactly the opposite, which can
be directly misleading for predicting future developments. The
most recent peak solar flux of 136 s.f.u. on October 13 was
measured exactly 27 days after September 17, when the flux was
97 s.f.u. the first day of a relatively long interval with low
values below 100 s.f.u. Consequently, the state of the Earth’s
ionosphere and thus shortwave propagation conditions was not as
favorable as might be expected at this time of year.
Furthermore, solar activity will decline for the remainder of
October. Although a disturbance in the Earth’s geomagnetic field
can be expected after October 20, it should be brief, and the rest
of the month is expected to bring relatively calm and favorable
conditions.
The Predicted Planetary A Index for October 16 to October 22 is
5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 15, and 20 with a mean of 8.6. The Predicted
Planetary K Index is 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, and 4 with a mean of
2.4. 10.7 centimeter flux is 100, 95, 95, 100, 100, 105, and
100 with a mean of 99.3.