A large coronal mass ejection (CME), with an estimated velocity of 314 km/s, was produced during the event, but the location of this region still doesn’t favor Earth-directed CMEs.
Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over parts of South America, South Atlantic Ocean, and Africa.
This is the third, and strongest, X-class solar flare in just over 24 hours — all of them from AR 3947.
It follows X1.2 at 11:39 UTC on January 3, which resulted in an easterly CME determined to be well off the Sun-Earth line, and X1.1 at 22:41 UTC — also associated with a non-Earth-directed CME.
Over the past 24 hours, AR 3947 evolved further, gained additional intermediate spots, and grew in overall areal coverage, suggesting it will continue producing powerful flares and signaling possible Earth-directed CMEs in the days ahead as it rotates into a geoeffective position.
A CME produced on January 1 was detected at DSCOVR spacecraft at Sun-Earth L1 Lagrange point — about 1.5 million km (1 million miles) from Earth, at 02:11 UTC on January 4.
This was a glancing blow that sparked G1 – Minor geomagnetic storming over the next couple of hours.
There are currently 11 sunspot regions on the Earth side of the Sun.
Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate to high levels over the next 3 days, with 55% chance of M-class flares and 10 – 15% chance of X-class.
There’s a slight chance for S1 – Minor solar radiation storm through January 6.
Isolated periods of G1 – Minor geomagnetic storming are likely today and tomorrow due to combined effects of CME and positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
This activity follows the G4 – Severe geomagnetic storm, with a brief period of G5 – Extreme, on January 1, 2025, after two CMEs produced on December 29 impacted Earth.
References:
1 Forecast Discussion – NOAA/SWPC – Issued at 12:30 UTC on January 4, 2025