A coronal mass ejection (CME) produced by the M3.3 solar flare at 10:39 UTC on January 21, 2025, is expected to deliver a glancing blow from late January 24 into January 25. This was a long-duration flare that started at 10:08 UTC and ended at 11:00.
M3.3 solar flare on January 21, 2025. Credit: NASA/SDO AIA 304, Helioviewer, The Watchers
Associated with yesterday’s M3.3 solar flare was a Type II Radio Emission with an estimated velocity of 565 km/s and a CME mostly directed off the SE limb beginning at 11:45 UTC in GOES/CCOR-1 imagery.
As a result, unsettled to active geomagnetic field levels, with a chance of G1 – Minor geomagnetic storm periods, are forecast mid to late on January 24 into January 25.
Solar activity over the past 24 hours remained at R1 – Minor levels due to M1.3 flare at 11:08 UTC from Region 3961 (beta-gamma-delta). This event was associated with a Type II Radio Emission with an estimated velocity of 561 km/s, suggesting a CME was produced during this event too.
While the bulk of it is heading south of us, coronagraph imagery suggests we might have another CME with an Earth-directed component.
Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate levels, with 60% chance of M- and 15% of X-class flares through January 24.
There are currently 9 active regions on the Earth side of the Sun.
3959 – Beta
3961 – Beta-Gamma
3962 – Beta
3964 – Beta-Gamma
3965 – Beta
3967 – Beta-Gamma
3969 – Beta-Gamma
3970 – Beta
3971 – Alpha
References:
1 Forecast Discussion – NOAA/SWPC – Issued at 12:30 UTC on January 22, 2025