The January 2, 2026, report from Spaceweather.com has updated
details about the Coronal Mass Ejections predicted to hit the Earth
on January 3 and 4.
Solar wind parameters are expected to be disturbed through January
4, 2026, due to a combination of Coronal Hole High Speed Stream and
Coronal Mass Ejection activity. There is the potential for glancing
influences late into January 3 from CMEs that left the Sun on
December 28 to 30. Additional enhancements are possible again on
January 4 with the possible indirect impact of the CME that left the
Sun on January 2.
By early January 3 the arrival of the December 31 is expected to
cause unsettled to G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming. Additional
geomagnetic storming is anticipated on January 4 with the possible
impact of the January 2 CME.
Solar activity is expected to be predominately low through January
24, with C-class flares expected throughout the outlook period.
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) range from a chance to likely
at times as active regions evolve and rotate on/off the disk.
X-class flares (R3-Strong or greater) range from a slight chance to
a chance during periods of enhanced active region complexity.
Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth’s
Ionosphere, January 1, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:
“In mid-December 2025, we observed a relatively significant decline
in solar activity within the approximately 27-day fluctuation caused
by the rotation of the Sun. It seemed that the maximum of the
eleven-year cycle would end after a period of high activity in
2024-2025. However, a significant increase in solar activity in the
second half of December suggests the opposite-solar activity will
probably remain relatively high in 2026!
“Based on increased flare activity, accompanied by coronal mass
ejections (CMEs) in the last days of 2025, geomagnetic disturbances
can be predicted in the first days of 2026. Their probability should
increase since January 1 (G1 level) until January 3 (when G2 level
can be expected). Calm days should follow since January 5.
“In the current eleven-year cycle, we have become accustomed to the
fact that the parameters of the ionosphere differ from those
measured in previous cycles at the same level of solar activity. For
example, the critical frequencies of the F2 ionospheric layer are
significantly lower. This will probably also apply to the rest of
the cycle. Even so, the forecast of a slower decline in solar
activity is favorable for the shortwave propagation.”
Region 4330 was responsible for two eruptions seen in SUVI imagery.
The first was associated with a coronal mass ejection (CME), first
observed in coronagraph imagery December 30, 2025, and was closely
followed by a second CME from the northeast quadrant, potentially
from near Region 4324. None of their modeled trajectory indicated
direct impact near Earth. Further coronagraph images are necessary
to evaluate whether the second eruption from Region 4330 will result
in a visible CME. No other Earth-directed CME was observed during
the period.
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class
flares through January 2, 2026, due to the current magnetic
complexity and development of the active regions on the visible
solar disk.
Periods of active conditions are likely on January 9 and 10 and on
January 12 to 14 due to negative polarity CH HSS influences.
The latest solar report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, can be found
on YouTube at:
.
The Predicted Planetary A Index for January 3, 2026 to January 9 is
15, 12, 5, 5, 5, 5, and 15, with a mean of 8.9 Predicted Planetary
K Index is 4, 4, 2, 2, 2, 2, and 4, with a mean of 2.9.
10.7-centimeter flux is 160, 155, 150, 155, 140, 130, and 125, with a
mean of 145.
For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
. Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at, .
Also, check this:
https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
“Understanding Solar Indices” from September 2002 QST.