Solar activity continued at low levels this week. Low level C-class
flares were observed from Regions 4342 and 4353. The majority of the
regions were either stable or in decay. New Regions 4359, 4360, and
4361 emerged on the disk and were numbered. No Earth-directed
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed. The forecast calls for
solar activity to remain at low levels with a chance for M-class
flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through January 31.
Solar wind parameters reflected a solar sector boundary crossing
followed by the likely onset of high speed stream (HSS) conditions.
On January 27, phi angle switched into a negative sector. Solar wind
speed began to increase after January 28 to around 610 km/s.
Enhancements in the solar wind environment are expected through
January 31 under negative polarity Coronal Hole High Speed Streams
(CH HSS) influences.
The geomagnetic field is expected quiet to unsettled levels on
January 31, and quiet levels on February 1.
Solar activity is expected to be predominately low with a varying
chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through February
21.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on January 31, and then on February 1
to 3. Normal to moderate flux levels are expected to persist through
the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storm
levels on February 13, with active periods likely on February 4 and
5 due to the influences of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Quiet and
quiet-to-unsettled conditions are expected to prevail throughout the
remainder of the outlook period.
Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth’s
Ionosphere, January 29, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:
“The number of sunspot groups has ranged between eight and ten in
recent days, but these are mostly magnetically simple areas with low
eruptive activity. However, the solar wind is blowing faster and
faster from the Sun, resulting in increased geomagnetic activity,
especially since January 28. Although this was expected, the
combination of fast solar wind, while rapid and significant changes
in the polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field has had
atypical consequences in the ionosphere. These include numerous
occurrences of ionospheric waveguides on January 28 and during the
night of January 29.
“In the coming days, solar and geomagnetic activity should continue
to decline. The next increase in geomagnetic activity can be
expected in the middle of the first week of February, but this time
without the major influence of high-speed solar wind. Therefore,
only a decrease in critical frequencies and an increase in
attenuation are expected in the ionosphere until February 6,
followed by a return to average values is expected.”
The latest solar report by Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, can be found on
YouTube at, .
The Predicted Planetary A Index for January 31 to February 6 is 8,
5, 5, 5, 15, 12, and 10, with a mean of 8.6. Predicted Planetary K
Index is 3, 2, 2, 2, 4, 4, and 3, with a mean of 2.9.
10.7-centimeter flux is 120, 120, 130, 140, 140, 130, and 120, with
a mean of 128.6.
For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
. Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at, .
Also, check this:
https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
“Understanding Solar Indices” from September 2002 QST.