The flare was accompanied by a Type II radio sweep with an estimated velocity of 1 201 km/s, suggesting a coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced. However, Region 4513 (beta) is currently near the Sun’s east limb — a location that doesn’t favor Earth-directed coronal mass ejection. Latest coronagraph imagery shows a large CME heading east and away from Earth.
Radio signatures were forecast to be most degraded over Africa, Europe, and the Atlantic Ocean at the time of the flare event.
The region also produced an M1.0 flare at 18:51 UTC on August 19 and an M1.8 flare at 08:05 UTC on August 20 before the M8.1 at 11:42 UTC, and an M2.9 at 16:11 UTC.
Regions 4513 and 4507 (beta-gamma-delta) were responsible for most of the C-class activity in 24 hours to 12:30 UTC today. A new Region 4514 (S10W49, Cro/beta) was numbered during the period, while two other regions rotated beyond the west limb, resulting in four numbered regions on the visible solar disk.
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels from August 20 through 22, with a chance of isolated M-class flares capable of R1-Minor to R2-Moderate radio blackouts.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at normal to moderate levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to cross the 1 000 pfu threshold on August 20 and remain at high levels on August 21 and 22 due to coronal hole high speed stream influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through August 22.
Solar wind parameters continued to reflect the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream. Total magnetic field strength remained near 5 nT, the Bz component fluctuated between approximately -5 and +5 nT, and solar wind speeds remained mostly near 550 km/s.
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the previous 24 hours. Active conditions are likely from August 20 through 22 as the ongoing coronal hole high speed stream influence near Earth wanes.
References:
1 Forecast Discussion – NOAA/SWPC – Issued at 12:30 UTC on August 20, 2026